Prof. Hayley Fowler is a hydroclimatologist with >15 years of experience in analysing the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological systems and has published more than 80 ISI-cited articles since 2000. She held a NERC Postdoctoral Fellowship (2006-10) examining the links between atmospheric circulation patterns, extreme rainfall and flooding, was awarded a Philip Leverhulme Prize in 2011 and Royal Society Wolfson Research Award in 2014. She specialises in the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological and water resource systems, examining recent trends in extremes and future projections and their impacts on flood and drought risks. She has been instrumental in the analysis of climate model outputs and development of new downscaling techniques to bridge the gap between modellers and users of climate information (e.g. UKCP09 Weather Generator).
Her current projects on extreme rainfall include TENDERLY (NERC FFIR, 2016-2018) which is characterising catchment susceptibility to flash flooding and developing better methods of simulating flash floods and developing improved forecast methods for flash flooding with the UK Flood Forecast Centre; and INTENSE (ERC Consolidator Award, 2014-2019) which is examining changing patterns of sub-daily rainfall extremes around the globe, what is causing these and what will happen in the future. She also leads the GEWEX Hydroclimatology Project cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall extremes.
Understanding changes in short-duration heavy rainfall under global warming
Rainfall extremes appear to be changing around the world but there is little information on how extreme short-duration events might change. This talk will present results from various projects which examine change to sub-daily rainfall extremes.
This seminar will examine results from new high-resolution climate model runs and new global observational datasets and how these can be used to explore and understand changes to sub-daily precipitation extremes under global warming. Trends in sub-daily precipitation extremes and their links to global and regional temperature change will be explored as well as future projections of change from coarse and high-resolution models.